Presidency Claims Food Prices Have Crashed, Defends Tinubu’s Economic Reforms

The Presidency has defended the economic policies of President Bola Tinubu, insisting that food prices have dropped significantly and that Nigeria’s economy is beginning to record positive changes despite persistent concerns over the cost of living.

Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, made the position known in a post on his official X handle on Friday, accusing some media organisations of promoting opposition narratives by portraying the administration’s economic performance negatively.

Onanuga urged television presenters and other media practitioners to visit markets and independently assess the prices of food items, particularly rice, which he said had become substantially cheaper compared with its previous peak.

According to him, a bag of rice that once sold for as much as ₦120,000 now costs less than ₦50,000 in some locations, with prices reportedly reaching ₦45,000 in his hometown.

“TV anchors keep pushing the opposition’s narrative that nothing has changed, positively, indeed, massively, since 2023. Their position has become so ridiculous that they keep parroting the old narrative, and now they question the NBS data on receding inflation. I will advise them to revisit the markets. Food prices are crashing,” he said.

“The favourite rice that at a time was selling for N120k a bag has crashed below N50k. In my hometown, a bag now sells for N45K.”

The presidential aide maintained that the reported reduction in food prices was evidence that the administration’s economic reforms were beginning to yield results, challenging claims that Nigerians had yet to experience meaningful improvements in their economic circumstances.

However, the extent of the reported price reductions may vary across locations, market outlets, product varieties and periods. A comprehensive assessment would require comparisons of prices across multiple markets and confirmation that the products being compared are of similar quality and quantity.

Presidency Challenges Media Narrative

Onanuga’s remarks reflect the Presidency’s growing emphasis on communicating what it considers the positive effects of the Tinubu administration’s economic policies.

Since assuming office in May 2023, Tinubu has introduced major economic reforms, including the removal of the petrol subsidy and changes to the foreign exchange market. The measures were presented as necessary steps to reduce fiscal pressures, improve the allocation of foreign exchange and establish a more sustainable foundation for economic growth.

However, the reforms initially contributed to significant increases in transportation, production and distribution costs, placing considerable pressure on households and businesses.

The depreciation of the naira also increased the cost of imported food, raw materials, machinery and other essential goods, while higher logistics expenses pushed up the prices of locally produced commodities.

These developments intensified public concerns about inflation and declining purchasing power, making the cost of food one of the most sensitive indicators of the administration’s economic performance.

The Presidency’s latest position suggests that the government believes the situation is improving and that media coverage should reflect developments in market prices and official economic statistics.

Nevertheless, the debate over the economy extends beyond whether the prices of selected commodities have declined. For many households, the critical question is whether food has become affordable relative to their incomes.

A reduction in the price of rice, for instance, may offer relief to consumers, but its broader significance depends on the purchasing power of households, the prices of other staples and the proportion of income required to meet basic needs.

Food Prices And The Cost-Of-Living Debate

Food inflation has remained a major concern for Nigerians because food accounts for a substantial share of household expenditure, particularly among low-income families.

When food prices rise rapidly, households often respond by reducing the quantity or quality of meals, substituting cheaper alternatives or cutting spending on healthcare, education and other necessities.

Consequently, any sustained decline in the prices of essential food items could provide welcome relief to consumers and ease some of the pressure on household budgets.

Onanuga’s claim that rice prices have fallen from about ₦120,000 to below ₦50,000 a bag would, if confirmed across comparable markets and product categories, represent a substantial nominal reduction.

Yet market prices can differ considerably depending on whether rice is locally produced or imported, the variety and quality of the grain, the size of the bag, transportation expenses and the distance between production centres and major consumption markets.

The reported price in the presidential aide’s hometown may therefore not necessarily reflect prevailing prices in Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt or other urban centres.

Furthermore, lower prices for one commodity do not automatically establish that the overall cost of living has fallen by a similar margin.

Consumers also contend with expenses such as rent, electricity, transportation, school fees, healthcare and other household necessities. A meaningful improvement in living standards would require relief across several of these areas, alongside stronger and more predictable household incomes.

The government’s argument would therefore be strengthened by regularly publishing comparable market-price data showing the movement of major food commodities across states and geopolitical zones.

Such information would help Nigerians distinguish between temporary price fluctuations and a sustained decline in the cost of food.

Foreign Reserves And Return Of Investors

Beyond food prices, Onanuga highlighted other developments that he said demonstrated an improvement in Nigeria’s economic outlook.

He claimed that the country’s foreign reserves were approaching $60 billion and that foreign investors were returning to the Nigerian market.

The presidential aide also said Nigerians could once again use naira-denominated bank cards abroad, while businesses were able to obtain foreign exchange to import raw materials, machinery and other equipment needed for their operations.

These developments, if sustained and supported by independently verifiable data, could indicate improvements in foreign exchange liquidity and confidence in the economy.

Foreign reserves are an important measure of a country's external financial position. They provide a buffer for meeting international obligations, supporting confidence in the currency and responding to external shocks.

An increase in reserves can also strengthen perceptions of economic stability, although the implications depend on the sources of the accumulation, the country’s external obligations and the level of reserves available for use.

Similarly, renewed foreign investment could support economic growth by providing capital, creating jobs, expanding productive capacity and facilitating the transfer of technology.

However, the quality of such investment matters. Long-term investments in manufacturing, agriculture, infrastructure and other productive sectors can have more enduring effects on employment and output than short-term portfolio inflows, which may be more sensitive to changes in market conditions.

Improved access to foreign exchange is also significant for Nigerian manufacturers that depend on imported equipment, spare parts and intermediate goods. If businesses can obtain foreign currency more predictably, they may be better positioned to plan production, meet orders and maintain operations.

Nevertheless, the benefits of improved foreign exchange availability would need to be assessed alongside the exchange rate, the cost of borrowing, energy expenses and other factors affecting business competitiveness.

Government Insists Reforms Are Laying A Solid Foundation

Defending the administration’s policies, Onanuga argued that the positive developments were evident to Nigerians who were prepared to assess the economy without partisan prejudice.

“These facts are clear to anyone not blinded by partisanship and hatred for the leader who has laid a solid foundation for the economy and is poised to take the nation to a higher level of shared prosperity,” he said.

The statement underscores the Presidency’s conviction that the administration’s economic programme should be judged not only by the initial hardships associated with the reforms but also by their longer-term outcomes.

The government has maintained that correcting structural weaknesses in the economy is necessary to create conditions for sustainable growth, attract investment and strengthen public finances.

However, the success of the reforms will ultimately be judged by their impact on production, employment, household incomes, business activity and the ability of Nigerians to meet their basic needs.

For millions of citizens, economic recovery is not simply a question of improved macroeconomic indicators. It is also about whether wages can cover food and transportation, whether farmers can move their produce to markets at reasonable cost, and whether small businesses can operate profitably without transferring excessive expenses to consumers.

A sustained reduction in food prices could be an important part of that recovery, particularly if it reflects increased agricultural output, improved distribution networks and lower production costs rather than a temporary market adjustment.

Need For Transparent Economic Communication

The disagreement between the Presidency and sections of the media also highlights the importance of credible economic reporting.

Journalists have a responsibility to scrutinise government claims, examine official statistics and report developments that affect the public. That responsibility includes reporting improvements where the evidence supports them, just as it requires examining continuing hardships and policy shortcomings.

Government officials, for their part, can help strengthen public confidence by making reliable data readily available and explaining how national economic indicators translate into changes in the lives of ordinary citizens.

The National Bureau of Statistics’ inflation figures, market surveys and other economic indicators can provide useful evidence, but they measure different aspects of the economy.

A decline in the inflation rate generally means that prices are rising more slowly than before; it does not necessarily mean that the overall price level has returned to what it was before the period of rapid increases. Actual price reductions in individual commodities may occur even while other goods and services remain expensive.

This distinction is important in explaining why official reports of easing inflation may coexist with public complaints about the cost of living.

To establish the extent of any improvement, market-price observations should be compared with historical data, while inflation statistics should be considered alongside wage growth, employment, food availability and household purchasing power.

Such an approach would provide a clearer picture than either dismissing every government claim as propaganda or accepting every reported improvement without verification.

The Test Is Whether Relief Reaches Households

Onanuga’s declaration that food prices are crashing has placed the affordability of staple foods back at the centre of the national economic debate.

If the reported reduction in rice prices is widespread and sustained, it could provide meaningful relief to households that have struggled with rising food costs since the introduction of the administration’s economic reforms.

But the broader test is whether such relief extends to other staples and whether household incomes can keep pace with the cost of essential goods and services.

For farmers and food processors, the challenge is to increase output while managing the costs of fertiliser, seeds, energy, transportation, storage and financing. For traders, reliable supply chains and lower logistics expenses can help reduce the final prices paid by consumers.

For the government, the task is to translate improvements in macroeconomic indicators into tangible gains in living standards, while ensuring that the most vulnerable households are not excluded from the benefits of recovery.

Ultimately, neither political criticism nor official optimism can substitute for evidence. Regularly verified market prices, transparent economic statistics and improvements in household purchasing power will determine whether the Presidency’s assertion that food is becoming cheaper reflects a broad and lasting change in the Nigerian economy.